CAREERS NOW 11-13-05

Looking Ahead at Job Snatchers and Job Makers

DEAR JOYCE: How do you see the nature of careers changing in the coming decades? Best career fields? Worst? - K.A.S.

Think wild cards. Previous paradigm shifts in the job market were somewhat predictable but from here on out, the patterns of change look startlingly different from shifts of the past.

It may just be an echo-chamber effect among forecasters but increasingly I come across viewpoints that the job as we know it is on its last legs in the big picture.

Point to remember: All jobs-of-the- future forecasting is educated guesswork subject to change with economic tides and technological discoveries.

GLOBALIZATION/AUTOMATION. Some imponderables are already shaped by well-documented job snatcher globalization and automation; this is illustrated by job offshoring, air terminal ticketing kiosks, telephone directory assistance voice-software, professor-scarce distance learning programs and operating room scrub nurse robots.

Other wild cards are showing up in such job maker trends as those happening in technology, demographics, society and perhaps space exploration. You've heard about "ageless aging," border security agitation, alternate energy development, whole-city rebuilding, consolidation of industries and new tool discoveries. Wow! Explosive change is everywhere.

But what about those jobs you can't find right now? Productivity (doing more with less) is soaring, a development that's emboldening businesses to meet flat demand with fewer workers right now.

MAKING CHOICES. So what will the job market look like in decades to come? My experience shows that most people don't bother with career planning until the fat's in the fire but that could change as more people unexpectedly find themselves burned in the job market or wake up nights wondering why they spent all that college money on their kid who can only find a modest or uncertain job.

But if you're ready to pay attention to what you should know about the changing workplace and workforce, I divide prophesies of careers of the future into three main categories with selective examples: original source projections, value-added commentary and futurist foresight.

MOTHER OF ALL JOB DATA. Original data gathering and analysis about the work road ahead is centered in the U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics. The feds are the only ones with adequate manpower, money and access to gather the requisite statistics to figure out what's happening. The data is collected and thought through by professional merit employees, not political appointees, Reports are written in a plain vanilla style that doesn't go too far out on a limb. Find BLS's newest take on "Tomorrow's Jobs" at www.bls.gov/oco/oco2003.htm.

State labor agencies - as well as university centers on education and work - also project work scenarios, tailoring them for specific regions and distributing their forecasts through schools, college career services and government One-Stop Career Centers (servicelocator.org)

Additionally, private publishers may rework BLS findings with minor embellishments. An example is the JIST Best Jobs series, such as "200 Best Jobs for College Graduates" (jist.com).

VALUE-ADDED COMMENTARY. Less conventional predictions appear from time to time in popular magazines - U.S. News & World Report, Time, Fast Company, Business2.0 and BusinessWeek - that periodically devote sections to jobs for the future. These outlooks are more imaginative than the BLS findings but tend to be more restrained than those of the third group.

Several years ago the Central Intelligence Agency published a major study, "Global Trends 2015," describing what the world may look like 10 years from now. It's scary. The lengthy report is still free to read online; go to cia.gov/cia/reports/globaltrends2015/index.html.

FUTURIST FORESIGHT. The edgiest assessments come from futurists who think in sweeping and, at times, sociological concepts. These fresh thinkers specialize in workplace trends, give seminars and write books and articles. Employee retention authority Roger Herman (hermangroup.com) is an established consultant, speaker and author who concentrates on workforce and workplace trends. Herman also edits that topic for The Futurist, the magazine of the World Future Society (wfs.org).

Futurist Richard W. Samson (eranova.com) discusses "hyperjobs" in books and futurist publications. View his Web site for Samson's views on what Americans can do to win the typical hyperjob of tomorrow, which is a collection of part-time and project jobs and which would be paid by money but also by barter and "time dollars."

CAREER PLANNING. Specialists have been the darlings of the job market in recent years. That may change, as Roger Herman explains: "Job candidates with broad, interdisciplinary backgrounds have become increasingly attractive to employers -- especially if they possess a willingness to learn new things in the job market of tomorrow."

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